Wall Street Week Ahead: A lump of coal for "Fiscal Cliff-mas"

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street traders are going to have to pack their tablets and work computers in their holiday luggage after all.


A traditionally quiet week could become hellish for traders as politicians in Washington are likely to fall short of an agreement to deal with $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts due to kick in early next year. Many economists forecast that this "fiscal cliff" will push the economy into recession.


Thursday's debacle in the U.S. House of Representatives, where Speaker John Boehner failed to secure passage of his own bill that was meant to pressure President Obama and Senate Democrats, only added to worry that the protracted budget talks will stretch into 2013.


Still, the market remains resilient. Friday's decline on Wall Street, triggered by Boehner's fiasco, was not enough to prevent the S&P 500 from posting its best week in four.


"The markets have been sort of taking this in stride," said Sandy Lincoln, chief market strategist at BMO Asset Management U.S. in Chicago, which has about $38 billion in assets under management.


"The markets still basically believe that something will be done," he said.


If something happens next week, it will come in a short time frame. Markets will be open for a half-day on Christmas Eve, when Congress will not be in session, and will close on Tuesday for Christmas. Wall Street will resume regular stock trading on Wednesday, but volume is expected to be light throughout the rest of the week with scores of market participants away on a holiday break.


For the week, the three major U.S. stock indexes posted gains, with the Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> up 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 <.spx> up 1.2 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> up 1.7 percent.


Stocks also have booked solid gains for the year so far, with just five trading sessions left in 2012: The Dow has advanced 8 percent, while the S&P 500 has climbed 13.7 percent and the Nasdaq has jumped 16 percent.


IT COULD GET A LITTLE CRAZY


Equity volumes are expected to fall sharply next week. Last year, daily volume on each of the last five trading days dropped on average by about 49 percent, compared with the rest of 2011 - to just over 4 billion shares a day exchanging hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT in the final five sessions of the year from a 2011 daily average of 7.9 billion.


If the trend repeats, low volumes could generate a spike in volatility as traders keep track of any advance in the cliff talks in Washington.


"I'm guessing it's going to be a low volume week. There's not a whole lot other than the fiscal cliff that is going to continue to take the headlines," said Joe Bell, senior equity analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research, in Cincinnati.


"A lot of people already have a foot out the door, and with the possibility of some market-moving news, you get the possibility of increased volatility."


Economic data would have to be way off the mark to move markets next week. But if the recent trend of better-than-expected economic data holds, stocks will have strong fundamental support that could prevent selling from getting overextended even as the fiscal cliff negotiations grind along.


Small and mid-cap stocks have outperformed their larger peers in the last couple of months, indicating a shift in investor sentiment toward the U.S. economy. The S&P MidCap 400 Index <.mid> overcame a technical level by confirming its close above 1,000 for a second week.


"We view the outperformance of the mid-caps and the break of that level as a strong sign for the overall market," Schaeffer's Bell said.


"Whenever you have flight to risk, it shows investors are beginning to have more of a risk appetite."


Evidence of that shift could be a spike in shares in the defense sector, expected to take a hit as defense spending is a key component of the budget talks.


The PHLX defense sector index <.dfx> hit a historic high on Thursday, and far outperformed the market on Friday with a dip of just 0.26 percent, while the three major U.S. stock indexes finished the day down about 1 percent.


Following a half-day on Wall Street on Monday ahead of the Christmas holiday, Wednesday will bring the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. It is expected to show a ninth-straight month of gains.


U.S. jobless claims on Thursday are seen roughly in line with the previous week's level, with the forecast at 360,000 new filings for unemployment insurance, compared with the previous week's 361,000.


(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Questions or comments on this column can be emailed to: rodrigo.campos(at)thomsonreuters.com)


(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Jan Paschal)



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Taliban Claim Role in Attack That Kills Pakistan Politician





PESHAWAR, Pakistan — The Pakistani Taliban claimed responsibility on Saturday for a suicide bomb attack that killed a senior politician in northwest Pakistan who was one of the group’s most vocal critics. At least eight other people were killed in the attack and more than 15 others were wounded, senior government officials and doctors at a local hospital said.




The politician, Bashir Ahmad Bilour, was a senior minister in the northwestern Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Province, where the Taliban have a strong presence. Mr. Bilour was long on the target list of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, an umbrella organization of the Pakistani militant groups, for publicly denouncing them and challenging their violent policies.


Mr. Bilour was coming out of a meeting of his Pashtun nationalist Awami National Party in the provincial capital of Peshawar, when the suicide bomber blew himself up, said the secretary of home and tribal affairs, Azam Khan.


Mr. Bilour had been taken to the hospital in critical condition, said Dr. Arshad Javed, chief executive of the city’s Lady Reading Hospital.


Among those killed were Mr. Bilour’s secretary and a police officer, Mr. Khan said.


The provincial information minister, Mian Iftikhar Hussain, called for immediate action against militants in the nearby tribal region of North Waziristan, the safest haven for militants in Pakistan, saying it was time to take action against all militants. “Let there be no difference between good Taliban and bad Taliban,” he said.


A security analyst, Asad Munir, a retired brigadier, said the attack would further complicate campaigning in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Province for a national election expected next year. He said that secular, liberal and nationalist parties would have a difficult time because they are on the Taliban hit list, and that, “Religious parties will take advantage of the situation.”


Also on Saturday, police officials in the southern province of Sindh said that a mob had tortured and killed a man accused of burning the Koran, the latest in a series of violent episodes in Pakistan stemming from allegations of blasphemy.


The killing occurred Friday in Seeta, a remote village in the Dadu district in southern Sindh Province. The village’s head cleric, Usman Memon, said charred remnants of the Koran had been found in the mosque that morning, and that the victim had been staying at the mosque alone. It is common for impoverished travelers and religious proselytizers to stay at mosques while traveling.


The man, whose name was not known, was handed over to the police and accused of violating Pakistan’s blasphemy laws, Mr. Memon said.


But as news of the episode spread later on Friday, an angry crowd gathered outside the police station and eventually forced its way in. The man was dragged out, tortured and killed, and his body was set on fire, according to the police.


Usman Ghani, the district’s senior police superintendent, said that he had suspended the official in charge of the police station and filed administrative charges against seven other officers for negligence.


He said that charges had been filed against 1,000 people believed to have participated in the mob action and that 150 people had been arrested.


Little was known about the victim or what motive he was thought to have had for burning the Koran, if he did so. Cases of violence arising from blasphemy accusations appear to be on the rise in Pakistan. Human rights groups have said that most of those victimized are members of religious minorities, particularly Christians, but Muslims are sometimes accused.


In a case similar to Friday’s, a mentally disabled man was beaten and burned to death in Punjab Province in July, also after an angry crowd broke into a police station.


Blasphemy is a capital crime in Pakistan, and it is a highly delicate and emotional issue for the deeply conservative country. Calls for repealing or revising the blasphemy laws have met with strong resistance from religious leaders, who have organized large protests against efforts to amend them. Two prominent advocates of changing the laws were assassinated last year.


Ismail Khan reported from Peshawar, and Salman Masood from Islamabad, Pakistan. Zia ur-Rehman contributed reporting from Karachi, Pakistan.



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Emily VanCamp: My Boyfriend Likes When I Take Off My Makeup















12/22/2012 at 12:15 PM EST



Josh Bowman prefers his girlfriend Emily VanCamp to be au naturel.

"When I take off my makeup, that's my boyfriend's favorite," the Revenge star, 26, tells Women's Health in its January/February issue of her Revenge costar and real-life beau, 24. "And that, to me, is a symbol of a great guy – someone who doesn't care about all that [glamorous] stuff."

VanCamp first realized this special quality her man possessed when she was on a fishing trip with him and his dad in England.

"I was there in my baseball cap and these crappy fishing clothes," she explains. "And I remember thinking, this is when I feel 100 percent comfortable – in these dirty clothes with fish guts all over them. I know it sounds horrendous. I'm at my most confident when I'm in nature and I don't have to dress up."

Emily VanCamp: My Boyfriend Likes When I Take Off My Makeup| Couples, Revenge, Emily VanCamp

Emily VanCamp

Courtesy Women's Health

When it comes to her relationship in general, she understands, "It's more about accepting each other as separate people," adding, "Laugh a lot and be really delicate with the other person’s heart, because sometimes you start to take each other for granted. Always remember that neither of you needs to be there. It's a choice every day to stay together."

But even a lady in love appreciates her alone time.

"I like to reflect," she says. "I need that sort of peace and quiet. It's something my friends and I laugh about: 'Oh, Emily’s having a night to herself.' It centers me."

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy


CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.


Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.


But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.


"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.


Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.


Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)


Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.


Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.


"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."


The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."


In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:


—Previous violent or aggressive behavior


—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse


—Guns in the home


—Use of drugs or alcohol


—Brain damage from a head injury


Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.


Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.


Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.


According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.


Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.


Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.


And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.


All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.


Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.


Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.


Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.


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Online:


American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org


___


AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner


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Wall Street Week Ahead: A lump of coal for "Fiscal Cliff-mas"

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street traders are going to have to pack their tablets and work computers in their holiday luggage after all.


A traditionally quiet week could become hellish for traders as politicians in Washington are likely to fall short of an agreement to deal with $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts due to kick in early next year. Many economists forecast that this "fiscal cliff" will push the economy into recession.


Thursday's debacle in the U.S. House of Representatives, where Speaker John Boehner failed to secure passage of his own bill that was meant to pressure President Obama and Senate Democrats, only added to worry that the protracted budget talks will stretch into 2013.


Still, the market remains resilient. Friday's decline on Wall Street, triggered by Boehner's fiasco, was not enough to prevent the S&P 500 from posting its best week in four.


"The markets have been sort of taking this in stride," said Sandy Lincoln, chief market strategist at BMO Asset Management U.S. in Chicago, which has about $38 billion in assets under management.


"The markets still basically believe that something will be done," he said.


If something happens next week, it will come in a short time frame. Markets will be open for a half-day on Christmas Eve, when Congress will not be in session, and will close on Tuesday for Christmas. Wall Street will resume regular stock trading on Wednesday, but volume is expected to be light throughout the rest of the week with scores of market participants away on a holiday break.


For the week, the three major U.S. stock indexes posted gains, with the Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> up 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 <.spx> up 1.2 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> up 1.7 percent.


Stocks also have booked solid gains for the year so far, with just five trading sessions left in 2012: The Dow has advanced 8 percent, while the S&P 500 has climbed 13.7 percent and the Nasdaq has jumped 16 percent.


IT COULD GET A LITTLE CRAZY


Equity volumes are expected to fall sharply next week. Last year, daily volume on each of the last five trading days dropped on average by about 49 percent, compared with the rest of 2011 - to just over 4 billion shares a day exchanging hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT in the final five sessions of the year from a 2011 daily average of 7.9 billion.


If the trend repeats, low volumes could generate a spike in volatility as traders keep track of any advance in the cliff talks in Washington.


"I'm guessing it's going to be a low volume week. There's not a whole lot other than the fiscal cliff that is going to continue to take the headlines," said Joe Bell, senior equity analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research, in Cincinnati.


"A lot of people already have a foot out the door, and with the possibility of some market-moving news, you get the possibility of increased volatility."


Economic data would have to be way off the mark to move markets next week. But if the recent trend of better-than-expected economic data holds, stocks will have strong fundamental support that could prevent selling from getting overextended even as the fiscal cliff negotiations grind along.


Small and mid-cap stocks have outperformed their larger peers in the last couple of months, indicating a shift in investor sentiment toward the U.S. economy. The S&P MidCap 400 Index <.mid> overcame a technical level by confirming its close above 1,000 for a second week.


"We view the outperformance of the mid-caps and the break of that level as a strong sign for the overall market," Schaeffer's Bell said.


"Whenever you have flight to risk, it shows investors are beginning to have more of a risk appetite."


Evidence of that shift could be a spike in shares in the defense sector, expected to take a hit as defense spending is a key component of the budget talks.


The PHLX defense sector index <.dfx> hit a historic high on Thursday, and far outperformed the market on Friday with a dip of just 0.26 percent, while the three major U.S. stock indexes finished the day down about 1 percent.


Following a half-day on Wall Street on Monday ahead of the Christmas holiday, Wednesday will bring the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. It is expected to show a ninth-straight month of gains.


U.S. jobless claims on Thursday are seen roughly in line with the previous week's level, with the forecast at 360,000 new filings for unemployment insurance, compared with the previous week's 361,000.


(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Questions or comments on this column can be emailed to: rodrigo.campos(at)thomsonreuters.com)


(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Jan Paschal)



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In Syria, Kidnapping of Kochneva Shows New Danger





MOSCOW — Late last month, a Ukrainian blogger and journalist, Anhar Kochneva, sat on a couch in the place where she was being held by a Syrian rebel group and, as one of her captors filmed her, confessed to working at the behest of Russian intelligence services.







via YouTube

A Ukrainian writer, Anhar Kochneva, in a video posted online by her captors, was kidnapped by Syrian rebels in October.






Her friends watched the clip on YouTube with a pit in their stomachs. Though the statement was clearly coerced — she identified a Russian military contact as “Pyotr Petrov,” the equivalent of “John Johnson” — it was the type of recording that could be used to justify an execution.


Urgent negotiations over the fate of Ms. Kochneva, 40, come at a dangerous point in the Syrian conflict, as armed groups with political and mercantile interests turn their attention to civilians. Tens of thousands of Russian citizens and other Russian speakers from the former Soviet Union live in Syria, scattered so widely that even ascertaining their whereabouts is a nearly impossible task.


The danger posed to Russians in Syria has come into increasingly sharp focus since Monday, when armed men kidnapped two Russian steel-plant workers and an Italian colleague not far from the place where Ms. Kochneva was seized. The daily newspaper Kommersant reported that their captors were demanding more than $700,000.


The next day, a Russian emergency services official told the newspaper Izvestia about contingency plans for an evacuation that could accommodate as many as 30,000 Russian citizens — or 60,000 if it included citizens from all the former Soviet countries. Russian warships were sent as part of that plan.


It is not just Russians who are coming under threat. One senior leader of the opposition movement, Haitham al-Maleh, told Al Jazeera on Wednesday that both Russian and Iranian civilians “present legitimate military targets for militants in Syria” because their governments have supported Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad.


A similar threat came from masked men claiming to be Ms. Kochneva’s captors, who said on Ukrainian television, “Let not a single Russian, Ukrainian or Iranian come out of Syria alive.” Syria’s opposition coalition denounced such statements to a Russian news agency on Thursday, saying they were “in conflict with the principles and goals of the Syrian revolution,” but worries here have been stoked.


“The policy was clearly pro-Assad, so public opinion may count Russians there as potential victims,” said Aleksandr I. Shumilin, head of the Middle East conflict analysis center at the Russian Academy of Science’s Institute for Canada and the United States. “This question has become inflamed because the conflict has reached a new stage.”


At the opening of an exhibit of her photographs in Moscow on Thursday, Ms. Kochneva’s 10-year-old daughter, Linda, looked on, twisting her hands, while a speaker described her mother’s fate as “a litmus test” for the Syrian opposition, a loose confederation that still lacks centralized control.


“When you start abducting journalists, it shows that you are not exactly an opposition, but something closer to bandits,” Ashot Dzhazoyan, general secretary of the International Confederation of Journalists’ Unions, said in an interview. “If they let her go, we will understand that these are people we can deal with.”


Ms. Kochneva’s life in Syria was bound up with the Russian position. She learned Arabic as a child growing up in the Ukrainian city of Odessa, and remained passionate about the region as an adult, when she ran a travel agency in Moscow specializing in the Middle East. After a divorce, she moved to Damascus just as the conflict was heating up.


As a fierce opponent of Western intervention, she worked to help Mr. Assad’s government more effectively get out its side of the story, friends said. “She has a lot of energy,” said Ildar Gilyazov, a Moscow lawyer and close friend, “and she needed to expend this energy, and she also thought that the Syrian authorities were losing the information war.”


She made a reputation as a fixer and an on-the-ground contact for Russian journalists, who said her language skills allowed her to talk her way through military checkpoints. Friends say she lived in a shabby one-room apartment, but regularly appeared on Syrian state television and could claim a kind of celebrity. Her former husband, Dmitri Petrov, said Ms. Kochneva was once stopped by a woman on the street whose child said: “This is the woman on television! She was on television against the opposition!”


Friends say it was not unusual to see Ms. Kochneva set off alone, as she did in the city of Homs in early October. She contacted colleagues and family by phone to say she had been abducted.


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Kim Kardashian Gets Dramatic in Trailer for New Tyler Perry Movie (Video)















12/21/2012 at 12:40 PM EST



She's doing what she does best: standing – pretty in pink – in skin-tight dress in the first few seconds of the new trailer for Tyler Perry's Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor.

Playing a character named Ava, Kim Kardashian, 32, is taking a stab at a dramatic role in the upcoming movie, alongside stars like Vanessa Williams and one-time frenemy – and sister of ex-boyfriend Ray J – Brandy Norwood.

According to IMDB, the film, due March 29, is about a marriage counselor (played by Jurnee Smollett) whose life changes once she begins a romance with one of her clients. (And smoldering glances aside, no specific word yet what Kim's role in the film entails.)

Still, judging by the brief clip, the movie is full of steamy, melodramatic scenes with a hot cast that also includes Lance Gross and up-and-comer Eric West.

This won't be Kardashian's first time on the silver screen. She made her film debut in 2008's Disaster Movie, and returned to the big screen in 2009's Deep in the Valley.

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AP IMPACT: Big Pharma cashes in on HGH abuse


A federal crackdown on illicit foreign supplies of human growth hormone has failed to stop rampant misuse, and instead has driven record sales of the drug by some of the world's biggest pharmaceutical companies, an Associated Press investigation shows.


The crackdown, which began in 2006, reduced the illegal flow of unregulated supplies from China, India and Mexico.


But since then, Big Pharma has been satisfying the steady desires of U.S. users and abusers, including many who take the drug in the false hope of delaying the effects of aging.


From 2005 to 2011, inflation-adjusted sales of HGH were up 69 percent, according to an AP analysis of pharmaceutical company data collected by the research firm IMS Health. Sales of the average prescription drug rose just 12 percent in that same period.


___


EDITOR'S NOTE — Whether for athletics or age, Americans from teenagers to baby boomers are trying to get an edge by illegally using anabolic steroids and human growth hormone, despite well-documented risks. This is the second of a two-part series.


___


Unlike other prescription drugs, HGH may be prescribed only for specific uses. U.S. sales are limited by law to treat a rare growth defect in children and a handful of uncommon conditions like short bowel syndrome or Prader-Willi syndrome, a congenital disease that causes reduced muscle tone and a lack of hormones in sex glands.


The AP analysis, supplemented by interviews with experts, shows too many sales and too many prescriptions for the number of people known to be suffering from those ailments. At least half of last year's sales likely went to patients not legally allowed to get the drug. And U.S. pharmacies processed nearly double the expected number of prescriptions.


Peddled as an elixir of life capable of turning middle-aged bodies into lean machines, HGH — a synthesized form of the growth hormone made naturally by the human pituitary gland — winds up in the eager hands of affluent, aging users who hope to slow or even reverse the aging process.


Experts say these folks don't need the drug, and may be harmed by it. The supposed fountain-of-youth medicine can cause enlargement of breast tissue, carpal tunnel syndrome and swelling of hands and feet. Ironically, it also can contribute to aging ailments like heart disease and Type 2 diabetes.


Others in the medical establishment also are taking a fat piece of the profits — doctors who fudge prescriptions, as well as pharmacists and distributors who are content to look the other way. HGH also is sold directly without prescriptions, as new-age snake oil, to patients at anti-aging clinics that operate more like automated drug mills.


Years of raids, sports scandals and media attention haven't stopped major drugmakers from selling a whopping $1.4 billion worth of HGH in the U.S. last year. That's more than industry-wide annual gross sales for penicillin or prescription allergy medicine. Anti-aging HGH regimens vary greatly, with a yearly cost typically ranging from $6,000 to $12,000 for three to six self-injections per week.


Across the U.S., the medication is often dispensed through prescriptions based on improper diagnoses, carefully crafted to exploit wiggle room in the law restricting use of HGH, the AP found.


HGH is often promoted on the Internet with the same kind of before-and-after photos found in miracle diet ads, along with wildly hyped claims of rapid muscle growth, loss of fat, greater vigor, and other exaggerated benefits to adults far beyond their physical prime. Sales also are driven by the personal endorsement of celebrities such as actress Suzanne Somers.


Pharmacies that once risked prosecution for using unauthorized, foreign HGH — improperly labeled as raw pharmaceutical ingredients and smuggled across the border — now simply dispense name brands, often for the same banned uses. And usually with impunity.


Eight companies have been granted permission to market HGH by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, which reviews the benefits and risks of new drug products. By contrast, three companies are approved for the diabetes drug insulin.


The No. 1 maker, Roche subsidiary Genentech, had nearly $400 million in HGH sales in the U.S. last year, up an inflation-adjusted two-thirds from 2005. Pfizer and Eli Lilly were second and third with $300 million and $220 million in sales, respectively, according to IMS Health. Pfizer now gets more revenue from its HGH brand, Genotropin, than from Zoloft, its well-known depression medicine that lost patent protection.


On their face, the numbers make no sense to the recognized hormone doctors known as endocrinologists who provide legitimate HGH treatment to a small number of patients.


Endocrinologists estimate there are fewer than 45,000 U.S. patients who might legitimately take HGH. They would be expected to use roughly 180,000 prescriptions or refills each year, given that typical patients get three months' worth of HGH at a time, according to doctors and distributors.


Yet U.S. pharmacies last year supplied almost twice that much HGH — 340,000 orders — according to AP's analysis of IMS Health data.


While doctors say more than 90 percent of legitimate patients are children with stunted growth, 40 percent of 442 U.S. side-effect cases tied to HGH over the last year involved people age 18 or older, according to an AP analysis of FDA data. The average adult's age in those cases was 53, far beyond the prime age for sports. The oldest patients were in their 80s.


Some of these medical records even give explicit hints of use to combat aging, justifying treatment with reasons like fatigue, bone thinning and "off-label," which means treatment of an unapproved condition


Even Medicare, the government health program for older Americans, allowed 22,169 HGH prescriptions in 2010, a five-year increase of 78 percent, according to data released by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services in response to an AP public records request.


"There's no question: a lot gets out," said hormone specialist Dr. Mark Molitch of Northwestern University, who helped write medical standards meant to limit HGH treatment to legitimate patients.


And those figures don't include HGH sold directly by doctors without prescriptions at scores of anti-aging medical practices and clinics around the country. Those numbers could only be tallied by drug makers, who have declined to say how many patients they supply and for what conditions.


First marketed in 1985 for children with stunted growth, HGH was soon misappropriated by adults intent on exploiting its modest muscle- and bone-building qualities. Congress limited HGH distribution to the handful of rare conditions in an extraordinary 1990 law, overriding the generally unrestricted right of doctors to prescribe medicines as they see fit.


Despite the law, illicit HGH spread around the sports world in the 1990s, making deep inroads into bodybuilding, college athletics, and professional leagues from baseball to cycling. The even larger banned market among older adults has flourished more recently.


FDA regulations ban the sale of HGH as an anti-aging drug. In fact, since 1990, prescribing it for things like weight loss and strength conditioning has been punishable by 5 to 10 years in prison.


Steve Kleppe, of Scottsdale, Ariz., a restaurant entrepreneur who has taken HGH for almost 15 years to keep feeling young, said he noticed a price jump of about 25 percent after the block on imports. He now buys HGH directly from a doctor at an annual cost of about $8,000 for himself and the same amount for his wife.


Many older patients go for HGH treatment to scores of anti-aging practices and clinics heavily concentrated in retirement states like Florida, Nevada, Arizona and California.


These sites are affiliated with hundreds of doctors who are rarely endocrinologists. Instead, many tout certification by the American Board of Anti-Aging and Regenerative Medicine, though the medical establishment does not recognize the group's bona fides.


The clinics offer personalized programs of "age management" to business executives, affluent retirees, and other patients of means, sometimes coupled with the amenities of a vacation resort. The operations insist there are few, if any, side effects from HGH. Mainstream medical authorities say otherwise.


A 2007 review of 31 medical studies showed swelling in half of HGH patients, with joint pain or diabetes in more than a fifth. A French study of about 7,000 people who took HGH as children found a 30 percent higher risk of death from causes like bone tumors and stroke, stirring a health advisory from U.S. authorities.


For proof that the drug works, marketers turn to images like the memorable one of pot-bellied septuagenarian Dr. Jeffry Life, supposedly transformed into a ripped hulk of himself by his own program available at the upscale Las Vegas-based Cenegenics Elite Health. (He declined to be interviewed.)


These promoters of HGH say there is a connection between the drop-off in growth hormone levels through adulthood and the physical decline that begins in late middle age. Replace the hormone, they say, and the aging process slows.


"It's an easy ruse. People equate hormones with youth," said Dr. Tom Perls, a leading industry critic who does aging research at Boston University. "It's a marketing dream come true."


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Associated Press Writer David B. Caruso reported from New York and AP National Writer Jeff Donn reported from Plymouth, Mass. AP Writer Troy Thibodeaux provided data analysis assistance from New Orleans.


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AP's interactive on the HGH investigation: http://hosted.ap.org/interactives/2012/hgh


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The AP National Investigative Team can be reached at investigate(at)ap.org


EDITOR'S NOTE _ Whether for athletics or age, Americans from teenagers to baby boomers are trying to get an edge by illegally using anabolic steroids and human growth hormone, despite well-documented risks. This is the second of a two-part series.


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Wall Street slides as fiscal deal unlikely before 2013

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks lost more than 1 percent on Friday after a Republican proposal for averting the "fiscal cliff" failed to pass, diminishing hopes that a deal would be reached soon in Washington.


Trading is expected to be volatile as investors view a fiscal agreement between the White House and Republicans before the end of the year as increasingly unlikely. Lower volume heading into next week's Christmas holiday could increase volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, <.vix> was up 10 percent.


Late on Thursday, Republican House Speaker John Boehner conceded there were insufficient votes from his party to pass a tax bill, dubbed "Plan B," to help avert the so-called fiscal cliff - $600 billion of tax hikes and spending cuts due to start in January. The fear is that failure to come up with a solution to avoid the cliff could tip the U.S. economy into recession.


Plan B had called for tax increases on those who earn $1 million or more a year, and the bill's failure suggested it would be difficult to get Republican support for the more expansive tax increases that Obama has urged, making it less likely an agreement will be reached between the White House and Republicans before the end of the year.


While Friday's slide reflected investors' anxiety, it was not a large enough drop to suggest they believed a deal would be reached too late to avoid damage to the economy, said Mark Lehmann, president of JMP Securities, in San Francisco.


"You could have easily woken up today and seen the market down 300 or 400 points, and everyone would have said, 'That's telling you this is really dire,'" Lehmann said.


"I think you get into mid-January and (the talks) keep going like this, you get worried, but I don't think we're going to get there."


Banking shares, which outperform in times of economic expansion and have led the market on signs of progress with resolving the fiscal impasse, were among the laggards. Citigroup Inc sank 2.7 percent to $39.10, while Bank of America slid 2.5 percent to $11.22. The KBW Banks index <.bkx> lost 1.7 percent.


The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> dropped 185.38 points, or 1.39 percent, to 13,126.34. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> tumbled 20.88 points, or 1.45 percent, to 1,422.81. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> lost 46.64 points, or 1.53 percent, to 3,003.74.


Even with the declines, the S&P 500 is up nearly 1 percent for the week and about 13 percent for the year, though uncertainty over the cliff may prompt many traders to lock in gains as the year draws to a close.


The day's round of data indicated that the economy showed surprising signs of resilience in November as consumer spending rose by the most in three years and a gauge of business investment jumped.


But separate data showed consumer sentiment slumped in December. The S&P Retail Index <.spxrt> fell 1.5 percent.


U.S.-listed shares of Research in Motion sank 17 percent to $11.72 after the Canadian company, which makes the BlackBerry, reported its first-ever decline in its subscriber numbers late on Thursday.


(Reporting by Leah Schnurr; Editing by Jan Paschal)



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Way of the World: Coming of Age at a Sour Time







NEW YORK — Have you been naughty or nice?




Whether you are a child writing to Santa or someone a little older taking stock of 2012 and preparing resolutions for 2013, this is the time of year a lot of us reflect on our personal performance.


One yardstick is moral or religious: Was I good? But another way we judge ourselves — and another reason the very act of self-measurement feels virtuous, like cleaning your house or exercising — is on our professional accomplishments. Did I work hard? Did I work smart? Did I get a raise? Did I land a good job?


This culture of self-improvement is made manifest in the forest of self-help books, which defy the secular decline of the publishing industry, and in their more highbrow older brothers, literary best sellers like “The Power of Habit” or “How Children Succeed,” which deploy more serious science and more stylish turns of phrase to teach us how to win, or how to raise children who will.


The baby boomers were enthusiastic consumers and producers of this individualistic approach to life. They were right to be. In North America and in Europe, they came of age at a time of robust economic growth. The social and economic trends that went along with that prosperity tended both to erode many traditional institutions — the patriarchal family, the church, the geographical community — and to create more personal freedom.


The result was an era of unprecedented individual choice and unprecedented individual opportunity. You really could build it yourself, and today’s silver-haired generation did. Their children have not rebelled against those values — they have doubled down on them. Even in many European and Asian societies that had retained traditional family structures and community ties, in long defiance of the economic currents pushing against them, young people today are leading lives driven and shaped by personal choice.


That’s why our new era of slow economic growth will be a personal shock, as well as a political one. Today’s young people have been reared on optimism and the power of individual choice. But they are coming of age at a sour time, when big, impersonal, structural forces will usually trump the efforts of even the grittiest and most ingenious and hardest working of individuals.


In an influential study, Lisa B. Kahn, an economist at the Yale School of Management, in Connecticut, found that coming of age during a poor economy had a serious financial impact on the rising generation. Initially, their incomes fell between 6 percent and 7 percent for each percentage point increase in unemployment. Crucially, this penalty persisted over time: 15 years later, their incomes were still knocked back 2.5 percent.


“Taken as a whole, the results suggest that the labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy are large, negative and persistent,” Dr. Kahn writes. “This is suggestive that workers who graduate in bad economies are unable to fully shift into better jobs after the economy picks up.”


These economic headwinds are a personal tragedy — millions of them. They are also a million personal disenchantments and maybe the beginning of a tectonic cultural shift. Recent political contests in the United States and Europe have taught us to connect our beliefs about personal agency with partisan politics: The right thinks individuals are the masters of their own destiny; the left wants government to extend a helping hand.


Of course, that broad caricature overlooks the ways in which conservatives have often privileged community needs — those of family, faith and country — over personal ones, while liberals have argued that personal happiness trumps everything else. Moreover, a preference for personal explanations over collective ones — the self-help book, rather than the political movement — can be a generational matter, rather than a political one.


Consider the finding by Paola Giuliano, of the University of California, Los Angeles, and Antonio Spilimbergo, of the International Monetary Fund, in a 2009 paper, that “recessions have a long-lasting effect on individuals’ beliefs.” Dr. Giuliano and Dr. Spilimbergo found that “individuals growing up during recessions tend to believe that success in life depends more on luck than on effort.” They also “support more government redistribution, but are less confident in public institutions.”


This research suggests we could be at the dawn of a profound cultural shift. Shamus Khan, a sociologist at Columbia University, in New York, told me that a widely shared conviction that individual effort determines individual reward — that we are the beneficiaries of hard work and talent, rather than luck and circumstance — is one of the central underpinnings of our current social and political order. The plutocrats think they built it themselves; ordinary Joes think if they get the right retraining and read the right self-help books, they can become winners, too.


The individualistic ethos is tremendously appealing — especially for those of us who have been raised in it. But for today’s rising generation, which is coming of age at a time of fierce economic challenges, it is unlikely to square with their personal experience. When unemployment is high and economic growth is sluggish, whether you are naughty or nice doesn’t matter so much. What counts is how generous Santa’s presents are and whether he exists at all.


Chrystia Freeland is Editor, Thomson Reuters Digital.


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